Experts say
we need to learn how to live with the virus. To figure out what that might
mean, you probably have heard this word thrown around a lot: "endemic," but
what does that mean for COVID-19?
The definition usually would say it's a
persistent presence of disease over a geographical area. It should
probably follow these three criteria for what endemic would mean for povid19,
and that's persistently low cases of acceptable deaths and proof that there is
some good immunity in the population.
When we talk
about living with the virus, what endemic looks like for covet 19 is flexible. We can think of three possible scenarios for what an endemic might
look like. The first is elimination. It's almost at zero. It's never entirely gone, but it's almost negligible. Then there's cohabitation, which means we're looking at some breakthrough infections, but that's manageable, and there's also conflagration. There
is a kind of endemic that we're living with, but it's also causing disruption.
It's like us. Every so often, there's a storm, and it's disruptive. It's going
to be like that, and in that scenario, you can birth new variants, new versions
of COVID, that could cause a pandemic. It's like a forest fire that's burning
until it doesn't burn anymore.
When that happens, we're just a step away from
going back into an epidemic or a pandemic. We all hope to achieve this endemic,
which is not disruptive, but what we're gunning for, the more realistic endemic is the cohabitation one. We should also do the work so that we
go for elimination.
While
reaching that state will entail the evolution of the barriers becoming less
severe over time, there are steps that both governments and people need to take
to achieve an endemic scenario.
What should we do until the COVID pandemic
is over?
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